Sports Betting Podcast 1-15-2013 with Handicappers Sammy P, Rob Veno, and Alf Musketa

NBA Handicapper Free Pick: New Orleans Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers Submitted by Teddy CoversNew Orleans +3 at Philadelphia O/U 184? Recommendation: New Orleans This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions right now.? Forget New Orleans' 11-26 full season record ? it?s meaningless.? The Hornets got star shooting guard Eric Gordon and #1 overall draft pick Anthony Davis back in the lineup and they?ve started to win. First the Hornets knocked off Dallas in Dallas.? Then they beat the red hot Spurs, a team playing as well as any in the league through the first two and half months of the season.? They rallied from a double-digit deficit at the end of three quarters to knock off the Rockets, and rallied from another double digit deficit to beat Minnesota.? The key in all four games was defense and rebounding ? New Orleans won the rebounding battle each time and held all three opponents to 92 points or less in regulation.? But New Orleans played poorly against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, making this a prime bounce-back spot for an undervalued commodity in the betting markets right now. Head coach Monty Williams: ?We just didn't play with a sense of urgency. After winning four games in a row, I thought our guys kind of rested on the fact they need to show up."? Expect a better effort here! Meanwhile, the Sixers are slumping badly.? Forget Philly?s season long 16-22 record.? Doug Collins? squad started the season with a 10-6 mark.? Since the beginning of December, they are just 6-16; a bottom feeder, not a contender.? The Sixers snapped a five game skid with a win over Houston on Saturday, but they are 0-6 SU following a win during their current slide.? Look for that streak to continue tonight!? ? Tags: NBA New Orleans Hornets Philadelphia 76ers Teddy Covers College Basketball Handicapping: Louisville Cardinals win again with defense Submitted by Stat Intelligence It?s time for our semi-annual reminder that Rick Pitino is one of the best defensive coaches in college basketball. The media is doing a better job of recognizing this. But, the sentiment you?re hearing now is about how great THIS particular Louisville defense is?rather than how great Louisville is on defense every year. Ken Pomeroy?s adjusted defensive ratings?which account for both tempo and quality of opposition?currently have Louisville as the #1 defense in the country. Just like last year! ? Recent Kenpom Adjusted Defensive Ratings Under Pitino 2012-13: #1 heading into win over 73-58 win over Connecticut 2011-12: #1 2010-11: #4 2009-10: #79 2008-09: #2 2007-08: #5 2006-07: #16 2005-06: #36 2004-05: #14 2003-04: #26 Now?on that chart, #79 looks like a disaster. Kenpom rates more than 300 teams! ?Pretty good? is a worst case scenario for a Pitino coached team. Elite is much more common. Heading into the 2012-13 campaign, we were looking at four top five finishes in the last five years. The current pace suggests five in the last six is in the offing. I know you?ve been hearing for years that Pitino focuses on offense. Once upon a time?he was the pace happy, trey happy coach who didn?t quite live up to hopes in the NBA. Since returning to the college game, he?s been creating dominating defenses that have gone unnoticed for far too long. The media is finally noticing. They should have noticed in 2004. It should have been one of the sports dominant storylines of the last 10 years. *You know Jim Boeheim coaches a tricky zone at Syracuse *You know John Calipari is a great recruiter wherever he?s been *You know Brad Stevens is a great tactician at Butler Rick Pitino should be linked to great defenses the way those men are linked to their storylines. Or the way Nick Saban is to great football defenses at Alabama. (Current Power Ratings and adjusted stat rankings from Ken Pomeroy can be found here)? Tonight?s numbers? Louisville 73, Connecticut 58 Two-Point Pct: Louisville 56%, Connecticut 44% Three-Pointers: Louisville 4/13, Connecticut 8/22 Free Throws: Louisville 11/15, Connecticut 8/13 Rebounds: Louisville 33, Connecticut 25 Turnovers: Louisville 13, Connecticut 16 This was far from a shut-down by Louisville standards. But, they didn?t put Connecticut on the line for many freebies. They forced 16 turnovers in a game that wasn?t run-and-gun. They owned the boards, only allowing Connecticut 7 offensive rebounds while grabbing 23 defensive rebounds themselves. Most importantly, when the game was on the line, they DID clamp down. Halftime: Connecticut 34, Louisville 28 Third 10 Minutes: Louisville 19, Connecticut 7 Final 10 Minutes: Louisville 26, Connecticut 14 A stranglehold after the intermission, then containment during garbage time. Louisville moves to 16-1 with the win, 4-0 in the Big East. And, they do so in impressive fashion as a road favorite against a team that just looked fantastic in a road win at Notre Dame this past Saturday. For those of you playing the markets, Louisville is 7-3 ATS their last 10 games, with one of the non-covers coming by half a point in an 18-point win. The game everyone is waiting for vs. #6 Syracuse comes up Saturday afternoon. You?ll definitely want to pay close attention to that one because both teams will be prominent on TV over the next couple of months. Remember to keep Pitino's defensive prowess on your radar in all of the marquee matchups ahead.? In the Big Monday nightcap on ESPN, we had more defense!? Kansas 61, Baylor 44 Two-Point Pct: Baylor 21%, Kansas 43% Three-Pointers: Baylor 4/14, Kansas 3/14 Free Throws: Baylor 14/23, Kansas 12/16 Rebounds: Baylor 37, Kansas 41 Turnovers: Baylor 14, Kansas 14 Isaiah Austin of Baylor was 6 of 15 from the field. Everyone else was 7 of 41. Kansas continued the shooting problems they?ve been having from long range, but did enough in other facets to coast to victory. There?s a lot of ugly basketball at the college level these days. Get ready for a rough and tumble road to the Big Dance. For the latest Stat Intelligence post on the NBA, click here? For the latest Stat Intelligence post on the NFL playoffs, click here Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals Stat Intelligence Sportsmemo Handicapper Sammy P gears up for another big NHL season Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals Stat Intelligence Mountain West Betting News and Notes 1-15-2013 Submitted by Rob VenoWyoming Suspends Second-Leading Scorer Luke Martinez Luke Martinez has been suspended indefinitely from the Wyoming basketball team as the result of a bar fight last month that left him with a broken finger. According to the Star-Tribune, there were charges filed against Martinez this weekend as a result of the incident. Martinez is the second-leading scorer for the Cowboys, a team that remained undefeated until last week and that has set themselves up nicely for a run at an NCAA tournament berth. There is no doubt that this injury ? and the suspension ? puts a dent into those plans. Head coach?Larry Shyatt has said that Martinez will not return to the team until the legal system has taken its course. For now, the Cowboys are going with a starting lineup consisting of three point guards and a pair of big men in Leonard Washington and Larry Nance Jr. Nevada Head Coach and Top Player Vent Frustrations In its 59-48 loss to Wyoming before an announced crowd of 6,282 fans, Nevada was tagged with its third straight double-digit loss. For the second time in three games, its offense was awful. After the game, a clearly frustrated David Carter said his team needs to show more heart, more guts and somebody other than Deonte Burton needs to step up and start making some plays. ?On the offensive end, it?s really though,? the coach said. ?When you?re not shooting the ball well and you call a play and get the look you want, get a guy driving to the lane and he misses, then it?s very frustrating. Now, it looks like your offense isn?t working. Now, it looks like you?re panicking. ?We have to go back and guys have to get confidence in themselves. I told them, ?You?re playing the game. I can draw up the play, but you have to have the guts to step up and make a shot.?? The Wolf Pack made just 29 percent of its shots ? the second time in three games it has shot below 30 percent ? and sank just 1-of-15 3-pointers. Typically a strong free-throw shooting team, Nevada made just 11-of-24 from the stripe. The team also missed several layups. Burton, the only member of the team allowed to talk to the media after the game, made 8-of-13 shots and scored 23 points. The rest of the team was 10-of-49 for 25 points. Nevada outrebounded Wyoming, 48-31, and grabbed 23 offensive boards but still fell by double digits. Asked if he was frustrated, Burton said yes. Asked if his team lacked confidence, he said yes. ?Especially down low,? Burton said. ?Those guys are getting point-blank layups and just rushing them a little bit. Maybe they?re nervous or maybe they?re rushing too much, but we have to get those shots to go down. I have to stay positive with them. As the team?s point guard and leader, I have to keep talking to them, like, ?It?s all right. You?re going to get it going.?? Air Force Trying To Stay Focused Air Force left for home wondering where it all went wrong. Las Vegas can do that to anyone. The task confronting the Falcons now is to make sure that what happened in Vegas stays in Vegas. ?You have to put it behind you,? said senior forward Mike Fitzgerald, who narrowly missed a chance to beat No. 24 UNLV with a 3-pointer just before the regulation buzzer. ?That?s what?s so tough about conference play is in two or three more days we?re playing again. You?ve just got to focus on the good things and use them for the next game.? The Runnin? Rebels did all they could to hand Air Force (9-5, 1-1 Mountain West) what would have been one of their biggest road victories in school history. UNLV missed 12 second-half free throws. It shot 24 percent from 3-point range. It gave Fitzgerald an open look to win it. The Falcons couldn?t seize it, and it?s one that could stew if the team isn?t careful. ?It?s going to be hard, and that?s our job as a coaching staff and my job as a head coach to lead this program,? said Dave Pilipovich, a longtime assistant who is in his first full year as a head coach at any level. ?We have to make sure they stay positive and keep working on them and get to the point where we have another opportunity like this.? Evidence suggests Air Force could have these kind of opportunities often. The Falcons have been competitive in every game with the exception of a loss at Richmond that came at the end of a long road trip and against a team that opened on fire from 3-point range. Colorado State?s Larry Eustachy Vows To Change Culture CSU showed a lot of resiliency storming back from a 41-23 halftime deficit at San Diego State on Saturday night to tie the game 63-63 and force overtime. From there, the Rams were outscored 16-9 and the 79-72 loss had head coach Larry Eustachy pretty aggravated. "You've got to get stops; we couldn't stop Tapley," said CSU coach Larry Eustachy, whose team snapped a seven-game win streak. "We just didn't make the plays, and I'm not used to it." "We have to change the culture here at Colorado State; we have to change the culture," Eustachy said. "I'm not sure if the players expected to come out here and win or not, but not being able to finish off the game is not how we're going to do it. We're used to it, this is what we've accepted, and it's no longer acceptable." The Rams lost out on a golden opportunity to pick up a huge win to add to their NCAA Tournament resume, one in which currently lacks a victory over an RPI top 50 team. "On the road you're not going to get the calls, it's not going to be easy, but players just have to make plays at the end of the day," said senior guard Wes Eikmeier, whose team hosts Air Force on Wednesday. "We got to have some toughness to buckle down and make the plays to win the game; they did and we didn't." Follow me on Twitter @robveno1? Tags: College Basketball Wyoming Cowboys Air Force Falcons Colorado State Rams Nevada Wolf Pack Rob Veno Sports Betting Podcast 1-15-2013 with Handicappers Sammy P, Rob Veno, and Alf Musketa Tags: NHL College Basketball NBA Sammy P Rob Veno Alf Musketa NFL Handicapping: Atlanta Falcons become a more attractive teaser bet at +10.5 With San Francisco now at -4.5 vs. Atlanta it gives bettors the option of teasing the Falcons up to +10.5 (crossing the key numbers of +6, +7, and +10). Over the last 12 NFL conference championships, using a 6-point teaser on the underdog resulted in an 11-1 record. 6-point underdog tease? NY Giants +8 - WIN? Baltimore +13 - WIN? Chicago +9.5 - WIN? NY Jets +10 - WIN? Minnesota +10 - WIN? NY Jets +14 - WIN? Arizona +9.5 - WIN? Baltimore +12 - WIN? San Diego +20 - WIn? NY Giants +13.5 - WIN? New Orleans +8.5 - LOSS? New England +9.5 - WIN Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons San Francisco 49ers NFL Gambling Update: For a second straight day, betting markets poound 49ers Fresh off Sunday's move from?-3 to -3.5, another wave?of San Francisco 49ers money came pouring in yesterday driving the line as high as as -4.5 for Sunday's NFC Championship?vs. Atlanta. If you were to poll bettors at halftime of last week's?divisional games (San Francisco led 24-21 and Atlanta led 20-0) on a 49ers-Falcons line, we seriously doubt there would be many saying -4.5 road chalk. Line history courtesy of CRIS. NFL Handicapping: 49ers bet hard off opening number for NFC Championship San Francisco -3.5 at Atlanta O/U 48 The betting markets made it known quickly that at -3 the San Francisco 49ers are the preferred side for Sunday's NFC Championship vs. Atlanta. Offshore, a few shops are holding on to -3 but with as much as -135 juice. Others were forced to bump the game to -3.5. Las Vegas' Mirage was last seen dealing -3.5 (-120).? Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons NFL Gambling News: Super Bowl XLVII betting lines Here are your look-ahead lines for Super Bowl XLVII courtesy of 5Dimes. AFC -2.5 (-115) vs. NFC? San Francisco -3.5 vs. Baltimore? New England -2 vs. San Francisco? Atlanta -1.5 vs. Baltimore? New England -5.5 vs. Atlanta Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl XLVII NFL Handicapping: Dual-threat quarterbacks vs. Atlanta Falcons A quick look at how dual-threat quarterbacks fared against the Atlanta Falcons this season. San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick, the opitome of a dual-threat, threw for 262 yards and rushed for 181 yards in last week's playoff win over Green Bay. Note that Washington's Robert Griffin III was forced to leave the game early with a concussion. Cam Newton (Game 1): 15-of-24, 215 yards, 2 TD, 0 INTs, 9 rushes, 86 yards, 1 TD Cam Newton (Game 2): 23-of-35, 287 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 9 rushes, 116 yards Michael Vick: 21-of-35, 191 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 7 rushes, 42 yards Robert Griffin: 10-of-15, 91 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 1 rush, 7 yards Russell Wilson: 24-of-36, 385 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 7 rushes, 60 yards Combined: 93-of-145, 64% completions, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 36 rushes, 311 yards, 8.6 ypc? Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons San Francisco 49ers NFL Gambling Trends: New England Patriots 8-3 ATS with same season revenge Submitted by Otto SportsBaltimore at New England -9 O/U 51.5 One angle to consider in your handicap of the AFC Championship Game this weekend is same season revenge. Over the past ten seasons the New England Patriots are 8-3 SU and ATS when playing with same season revenge. If we pare that down to same season revenge while playing at home they are a remarkable 6-0 SU and ATS. Baltimore defeated New England way back in Week 3 in a game the Ravens led for only about five minutes. Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens College Basketball Handicapping: Boise State will be close to full strength vs. New Mexico Submitted by Rob VenoBoise State will nearly be back to full strength on Wednesday when it plays host to New Mexico. Last week, when the Broncos traveled to Wyoming to take on the Cowboys, they did it without four players, including their top two reserves and leading scorer Derrick Marks. The Broncos still managed to win that game, however, and now they?ll be getting three of those four players back on the floor. Marks will return Wednesday, as will Mikey Thompson and Darrious Hamilton. Kenny Buckner will miss another two games. The quartet was suspended for the dreaded violation of team rules. ?It was one of the hardest decisions I?ve ever had to make,? head coach Leon Rice told the Idaho Statesman after the Wyoming game, in reference to the suspensions. ?We have a young team and we?re building a program, so one game is not as important as the future of our program. We don?t compromise on not doing it right.? Follow me on Twitter @robveno1? Tags: College Basketball Boise State Broncos Rob Veno NBA Handicapper Free Pick: Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls Submitted by ER SportsAtlanta at Chicago -4.5 O/U 184? Recommendation: Under The Bulls have dropped two straight games at the United Center, which is an extreme rarity under head coach Tom Thibodeau.? They lost to the Bucks and Suns, while allowing a combined 201 points.? It makes sense the Bulls will turn it up on the defensive end on their home court tonight.? The Bulls did beat the Knicks on Friday night at Madison Square Garden, 108-101.? Keep in mind the Knicks really pushed the pace in that game trying to get back into the contest, while falling down by double-digits.? In the fourth quarter alone there were 69 points scored.? Meanwhile, the Hawks are stumbling over themselves in January.? They?re 1-5 in their last six games and struggling on offense.? They?ve remained a soft team, while too quick to launch a jump shot and not fighting for better looks in their half-court offense.? The task will continue to be tough tonight as the Bulls are actually the best defensive team they?ve faced this month.? The last seven times these two teams have met six went UNDER the total with a combined market total of 180.5.? Play this game UNDER the total tonight on NBA TV. Follow Erin Rynning on Twitter @ersports1 Tags: NBA Atlanta Hawks Chicago Bulls Erin Rynning Sports Betting Podcast 1-14-2013 with Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning Tags: NFL College Basketball NBA Teddy Covers Erin Rynning NFL Conference Championship Betting History 2007-12 Betting results from the last 12 NFL conference championships. Road and home are split at 6-6 ATS. The same holds true for favorites and underdogs. Totals have trended OVER at 8-4 O/U. AFC and NFC Championship Betting Hsitory 2007-12 Year Away Home Score ATS Total 2012 NY Giants +2 San Francisco NYG 20, SF 17 OT Underdog Under 40.5 2012 Baltimore +7 New England NE 23, BAL 20 Underdog Under 49 2011 Green Bay -3.5 Chicago GB 21, CHI 14 Favorite Under 42 2011 NY Jets Pittsburgh -4 PIT 24, NYJ 19 Favorite Over 38 2010 Minnesota +4 New Orleans NO 31, MIN 28 OT Underdog Over 54 2010 NY Jets Indianapolis -8 IND 30, NYJ 17 Favorite Over 47 2009 Philadelphia Arizona +3.5 AZ 32, PHI 25 Underdog Over 47 2009 Baltimore Pittsburgh -6 PIT 23, BAL 14 Favorite Over 35 2008 San Diego +14 New England NE 21, SD 12 Underdog Under 48 2008 NY Giants +7.5 Green Bay NYG 23, GB 20 OT Underdog Over 41.5 2007 New Orleans Chicago -2.5 CHI 39, NO 14 Favorite Over 42.5 2007 New England Indianapolis -3.5 IND 38, NE 34 Favorite Over 47 Tags: NFL Big 20*s from Top NFL Producers Erin Rynning and Brent Crow Tags: NFL Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Championship News and Quotes Submitted by Teddy CoversWe?re down to the Final Four in the NFL Playoffs, with two compelling championship game matchups set for next Sunday. I?ve spent all year writing about these teams using my own words. This week, I thought it would make an interesting read to focus on the numerous quotes offered by various players and coaches. Who?s saying what heading into the biggest games of the season? In Part II, we take a look at the AFC Championship with New England a 9-point favorite vs. Baltimore. Click here for the NFC. New England Patriots ? All the Patriots quotes come straight out of ?Coach Speak 101? ? New England is not a great team for publicizing what?s going on internally, and they certainly won?t say anything to give their opponent any sort of motivational edge.? That being said, there was legitimate concern on the roster following the season ending injury for their top red zone threat, tight end Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady following his NFL record 17th postseason victory: ?I love playing, I love competing.? I love being a part of this organization.? I think I've just been fortunate to play on some great teams over the years. I never take it for granted?.I think the two best teams are in the final. Baltimore certainly deserves to be here and so do we.?? Tight end Aaron Hernandez, talking about Gronkowski?s injury: ?It?s hard to replace a player like him. He?s a freak of nature.? Bill Belichick: ?You don?t win a war by digging a foxhole and sitting in it. You?ve got to go out there and attack.? Linebacker Brandon Spikes, talking about the Patriots sense of unity: ?With us, we know it takes all of us to win. We all have to play well, all 11 guys on each side of the ball, special teams, everything. It?s a team-based game. You need an entire team to accomplish your goals.? Baltimore Ravens - Baltimore?s quotes, as a group, sound like they?re coming from a team that is physically and emotionally spent following their epic double overtime win over the Broncos.?? And history certainly isn?t on Baltimore?s side next Sunday in a rematch of last year?s AFC Championship Game.? This is the sixth time since 1970 that the same teams are playing in the conference championship game in consecutive seasons. The teams that won the first meeting in the championship game have gone 5-0 in the rematch. Ray Lewis: ?I?ve never been a part of a game so crazy in my life? I think we are special just by what we've been through all year, injury-wise. For the first half last week, that was the first time me Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed and Haloti Ngata actually played together because of the injuries we've dealt with. So as a team, what we've done is the reason why we're here now." Head coach John Harbaugh: ?Thanks for bearing witness to one of the greatest football games you're ever going to see.? That football game did football proud?.This is, in its own right, incomparable. We've never been through anything quite like this, but that's how life is.?? Rookie kicker Justin Tucker, the anti-Billy Cundiff, following his game winning 47 yard field goal: ''I always feel good when I go out on the field.? Not many people get to do this. This is a heck of a lot of fun.? Quarterback Joe Flacco: ?We fought hard to get back to this point. We are definitely proud of being here, and we feel like it is going to take a lot for someone to come and kick us off that field come the AFC championship game. We are going to give it our all and we know what it felt like last year. We walked off that field without that win. We know what we've put in to get back to point. It's going to be a great game.? Safety Bernard Pollard summed it up: ?We just have to keep moving forward.? This is a blessing. We're just excited to be moving forward [but] it won't mean nothing if we don't win.? Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC Championship News and Quotes Submitted by Teddy CoversWe?re down to the Final Four in the NFL Playoffs, with two compelling championship game matchups set for next Sunday.? I?ve spent all year writing about these teams using my own words.? This week, I thought it would make an interesting read to focus on the numerous quotes offered by various players and coaches.? Who?s saying what heading into the biggest games of the season?? In Part I, we take a look at the NFC Championship with San Francisco a 3.5-point favorite at Atlanta. Atlanta Falcons ? The Falcons finally got the monkey off their backs with their first playoff victory in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era.? And Atlanta has one advantage that the Packers didn?t have facing a mobile QB in Colin Kaepernick on Sunday ? they?ve already faced Cam Newton (twice), Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson.? However, former 49ers head coach and current Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan saw his defense get picked apart in three of those four games (allowing 28+ points), and the one that they didn?t (against the Redskins) was a game where RGIII left early due to a concussion. Head coach Mike Smith was pretty darn pumped following Atlanta?s last minute win over Seattle, after Matt Ryan threw a pair of strikes to Harry Douglas and Tony Gonzalez to put the Falcons in field goal range for kicker Matt Bryant?s game winner from 49 yards.? ?Our quarterback is a special player. They call him Matty Ice, but I feel like we've got two Matty Ices. There's Matty Ice Ryan and Matty Ice Bryant.? Ryan: '?Nobody flinched (following Seattle?s comeback).? We just kept battling, kept doing what we do. That's been the makeup of our team all season?.. The one thing I've learned during my five years in the league, and specifically in the postseason, is that it's hard?..But our goal is not to win one playoff game. Our goals are still in front of us. We still have two more games to go. That's the mind-set I have. That's the mind-set this team has.? Matt Bryant: ?When they scored their touchdown, I walked down (the sideline. I told the offensive line, I told Matt (Ryan), I told all the receivers, 'We've done this before?. Future Hall of Fame tight end following the first postseason victory of his 16 year career: ?I was on the ground crying, like a little baby.? Cornerback Asante Samuel: ?(Too many) busted coverages. Was I worried. Uh, yeah. It was a little stressful.? San Francisco 49ers ?? Of the four teams still standing, no squad looked better than Jim Harbaugh?s 49ers in their second half rout of the Packers on Saturday Night.? I thought some Green Bay quotes following their defeat would be worthy of inclusion here.? Packers head coach Mike McCarthy: ?The execution for the 49ers on the read option was excellent.? We did not do a very good job of keeping (Kaepernick) in the pocket.? Packers cornerback Charles Woodson: ?I didn't know how fast (Kaepernick) was. Coming in I really never paid attention to it. But he is fast?..We expected them to try to get him out on the perimeter. But we didn't expect to let him do what he did.? Give him a lot of credit. He played a great game. He made a lot of great plays out there today. It was hard to swallow.? Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers: ?We just didn't get it done in the second half.? I knew we were going to have to score some points. We knew we were going to have to put up at least 38 points.? Kaepernick:? ?It feels good. We're one step closer to where we want to be. I feel like I had a lot to prove. A lot of people doubted my ability to lead this team?.Our offensive line did an amazing job.? They shut everybody down inside. Our receivers, our tight ends, blocked great outside, and our running backs were running hard, so it made it easier on me.? Jim Harbaugh, talking about how Kaepernick reacted to his early pick six that swung momentum in Green Bay?s favor: ?He does a great job of responding.? He has done that any time there has been an interception he has thrown, a safety or a turnover, he's responded with a scoring drive. That's rare. I think that's a rare quality. So far he's shown that he's got that ability to come back.? Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons Teddy Covers College Basketball Gambling: Tough to bet against Louisville's defense Louisville -7 at Connecticut O/U 132.5 Last time out against South Florida, the Louisville Cardinals shot 38% from the floor and 17% from three. Leading scorer Russ Smith was 2-for-13, including 0-for-4 from three. Oh, we almost forgot, the Cardinals also had 15 turnovers. Most of you are already aware of the outcome but it bears repeating ? despite such an awful night offensively, Louisville destroyed South Florida 64-38. To put it in perspective how good UL's defense is, based on their seasonal output of 0.80 points per possession allowed, it takes opponents 75 possessions to score 60 points. Only three opponents have topped a point per possession against the Cardinals (Duke, Memphis, and Kentucky). UConn comes into tonight's game off a big road win at Notre Dame. Their three losses were by margins of six, six, and four. ?At Seton Hall we turned it around in that second half, I feel like we played good defense (against USF) the whole game, so I feel like we?ve kind of hit a turning point,? Hancock said. ?Maybe that?s the defense we?ll play for the year.? ?Louisville is great, (Rick) Pitino is great, the team is great,? UConn coach Kevin Ollie said shortly after the Huskies? win over Notre Dame. ?We?re going to have to challenge them. They pressure the basketball, they?ve got inside play, guard play. We?re going to watch a lot of tape and come up with a plan, then our guys are going to execute it.? Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals UConn Huskies New England Patriots are nearly even money to win Super Bowl XLVII Will your team win Super Bowl XLVII? Here are the current odds courtesy of Pinnacle. New England Patriots? Yes +107? No -120 San Francisco 49ers? Yes +199? No -222 Atlanta Falcons ? Yes +590? No -730 Baltimore Ravens? Yes +865? No -1200 Tags: NFL New England Patriots NFL Handicapping: 49ers bet hard off opening number for NFC Championship San Francisco -3.5 at Atlanta O/U 48 The betting markets made it known quickly that at -3 the San Francisco 49ers are the preferred side for Sunday's NFC Championship vs. Atlanta. Offshore, a few shops are holding on to -3 but with as much as -135 juice. Others were forced to bump the game to -3.5. Las Vegas' Mirage was last seen dealing -3.5 (-120).? Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons College Basketball Betting Free Play: Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon Ducks Submitted by Andrew LangeArizona State at Oregon? Recommendation: Arizona State +5.5 1st half On most days, Oregon is without question 10 points or more better than Arizona State on its home floor. But, the Ducks are off a huge storm-the-court-win against undefeated Arizona and it shouldn't come as a shock if they come out sluggish against ASU tonight. That was the biggest win the Ducks have had under Dana Altman as the team moved to 13-2, 2-0 PAC-12. Arizona State comes in playing with house money. They beat Utah in overtime to open PAC-12 play, caught Colorado in a great spot, and benefited from a multiple suspensions to Oregon State. I'm not completely sold on the Sun Devils but they are improved from last season (see: PG Jahii Carson) and have the guard play and size to not be completely overwhelmed on the highway. I grabbed some ASU +5.5 first half and will play accordingly at halftime. ? Tags: College Basketball Arizona State Sun Devils Oregon Ducks Andrew Lange NCAA Basketball Gambling: Arizona, Wyoming no longer perfect, Duke and Michigan remain Two teams back in action this weekend after losing their first games of the season. Wyoming, who while good was on borrowed time after playing a fairly soft schedule, lost at home to Boise State, 63-61. The Cowboys go on the road to face Nevada on Saturday. Arizona's streak ended last night in Eugene as Oregon held on for a 70-66 victory. The Wildcats have a day to record and then visit Oregon State. Duke (15-0, at NC State) and Michigan (16-0, at Ohio State) remain the only two unbeatens. Out of curiosity, we went back the last two years and looked how teams with extended perfect records fared after being issued their first loss of the season. It is a small sample but there doesn't look to be a significant hangover effect. The best example was two years ago when Syracuse was 18-0 and lost to Pittsburgh. The next time out against Villanova in the Carrier Dome, the Orange trailed 40-29 at half and lost by the same margin as 5.5-point home favorites. 2011-12? Syracuse 20-0, Loss at Notre Dame, Next game won and covered at Cincinnati. Missouri 14-0, Loss at Kansas State, Next game won at covered at Iowa State. Baylor 17-0, Loss at Kansas, Next game SU/ATS loss vs. Missouri. Murray State 23-0, Loss vs. Tennessee State, Next game won and covered vs. Austin Peay. 2010-11? Ohio State 24-0, Loss at Wisconsin, Next game won but failed to cover (by a bucket) vs. Michigan State. Kansas 18-0, Loss vs. Texas, Next game won but failed to cover at Colorado. San Diego State 20-0, Loss at BYU, Next game won and covered vs. Wyoming. Syracuse 18-0, Loss at Pittsburgh, Next game SU/ATS loss vs. Villanova. Tags: College Basketball Wyoming Cowboys Arizona Wildcats Duke Blue Devils Michigan Wolverines NBA Betting Update: Lakers-Thunder total up 3.5 points from opening number Checking in on the betting markets and their current love affair with betting Los Angeles Lakers games OVER the total. Below is CRIS lines history for LA's last three games and tonight's contest against Oklahoma City which not surprising, has already moved 3.5 points towards the? OVER. In the first meeting, the Thunder won 114-108 with a closing total of 212. vs. Oklahoma City? CRIS Opener: 214? CRIS Current: 217.5 at San Antonio? CRIS Opener: 212? CRIS Peak: 216.5? CRIS Closer: 214? Result: 213 points, UNDER/PUSH/OVER at Houston? CRIS Opener: 219? CRIS Peak: 224.5? CRIS Closer: 223.5? Result: 237 points, OVER vs. Denver? CRIS Opener: 213? CRIS Peak: 214? CRIS Closer: 214? Result: 217 points, OVER NBA Handicapping: Bettors eager to bet defense-less Lakers OVER the total LA Lakers at San Antonio -13.5 O/U 213.5 Rarified air for tonight's Lakers-Spurs pointspread. Seven of the last 10 in the series were lined 4.5 or less. Only one was priced at double-digits (Kobe didn't play). But the adjustment is obviously warranted considering LA's play of late (0-4 SU/ATS run) and injury situation ? and the fact they are in a back-to-back situation while the Spurs are rested. We saw a massive move toward the over in last night's Lakers-Rockets game. CRIS opened 219 and closed 223.5 and the game still went over by 13.5 points. Tonight?s total has always been peppered ? CRIS opened 212 and is already as high as 214.? Tags: NBA Los Angeles Lakers Oklahoma City Thunder College Basketball Gambling Free Pick: Wright State Raiders at Loyola Ramblers Wright State +4 at Loyola Chicago O/U 115.5? Recommendation: Wright State This was supposed to be another down year for Wright State; still rebuilding following a string of 20+ win seasons under Brad Brownell (now at Clemson).? But a funny thing happened to Billy Donlon?s squad on the way to the Horizon League cellar ? they started playing great basketball, right from the get-go.? On opening night, the Raiders pulled the outright upset as ten point road dogs at Idaho.? They followed that up with wins away from home against Eastern Illinois, Idaho State and Hofstra.? Wright played at Cincinnati and hung tough throughout, a wire-2-wire ATS cover as 18 point dogs.? And here in Horizon League play, we?ve seen the Raiders win each of their first three games, two in blowout fashion, thanks to a stifling defense that has held nine of their last ten opponents under 60 points. Even in last year?s disappointing 13 win season, the Raiders still beat up Loyola-Chicago in both meetings, including a 16 point win here in Chicago.? They swept Loyola in 2011 as well, winning by 17 on the Ramblers home floor.? In fact, Loyola has just one win against Wright State in the last ten meetings between these two squads, and that win came by a single point on New Year?s Eve in 2009. Loyola got off to a surprising start as well, but they?ve come back to earth here in January, losing as home chalk to Youngstown in their last try on this floor, then getting blasted at Green Bay earlier in the week.? The Ramblers are a limited offensive ballclub, and they don?t play ?D? at Wright State?s level; primed for another home loss this evening.? ? Tags: College Basketball Wright State Raiders Loyola-Chicago Ramblers Teddy Covers

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